Do Prenups Predict Divorce?

Let’s cut to it: there’s no credible data suggesting that getting a prenuptial agreement increases your chances of divorce. 

In fact, research suggests that having a prenup in place may make your marriage more stable, not less.

Let’s explore the interplay between prenups and marital success and how they can support a long and happy union.

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The Research: Stronger Prenup Laws, Lower Divorce Rate

A 2016 study published in the Journal of Legal Studies examined how divorce rates changed in U.S. states after they adopted the Uniform Premarital Agreement Act (UPAA). This act standardized and strengthened the enforceability of prenups across the country.

The researchers found fascinating results: states that adopted the UPAA saw a significant decline in their divorce rates over time, by about 13–16%. In plain terms, that means roughly 1.3 to 1.6 fewer divorces per 1,000 married adults.

That’s not a small drop. And remember, this wasn’t just a poll or opinion piece—it was a serious data study spanning 25 years and all 50 states.

The authors suggest that when prenups are more enforceable (i.e., when both people can count on them actually holding up in court), couples have more incentive to stay together and work through issues rather than defaulting to divorce.

Why Might Prenups Lower the Risk of Divorce?

There’s more to prenups than disincentivizing divorce. A prenuptial agreement has a variety of benefits that help fortify your relationship.

Here’s how prenups set you up for success and minimize divorce:

• Improved Communication

Prenup discussions force you to talk openly about money, values, and long-term goals early on.

This is a massive advantage, as research consistently shows that financial disagreements are one of the leading predictors of divorce.

By front-loading these conversations, you’re setting a healthier tone for your marriage from the start.

• Emotional Clarity

Through this process, you learn how your partner thinks about fairness, independence, and support. That emotional insight sets the tone for future problem-solving and conflict resolution.

• Aligned Expectations

You clarify what’s yours, what’s shared, and how you’d handle changes like children, relocations, or career shifts. This helps prevent painful misunderstandings later on.

Plus, if one partner is in it for the long haul and the other is secretly eyeing the exit ramp (or worse, the wallet), the prenup process can bring that misalignment to the surface. This is sometimes called the “gold-digger screen” in legal circles, but really, it’s just about ensuring that both people are aligned in their values and intentions.

• Reduced Future Conflict

If the unexpected does happen, a prenup provides a roadmap that can minimize animosity and legal battles.

You don’t have to worry about what happens to your house, business, or retirement accounts—it’s all been established via your prenup. This protects not just your finances but also your emotional well-being.

• Prenups Take “Strategic Divorce” Off the Table

In some high-conflict situations, spouses may see divorce as a way to get a financial windfall or gain leverage.

If a prenup clearly defines separate property and expectations, there’s less incentive to weaponize the legal process. This doesn’t just help the wealthier spouse; it benefits both people by creating a fair, transparent framework from day one.

Myth-Busting: 5 Common Prenup Misconceptions

Prenups have gotten a bad rap for years, but that’s starting to change. What was once a document thought to be exclusive to celebrities is gaining widespread reception, helping break stereotypes along the way.

Here are the five most common prenup myths I hear:

1. “Getting a prenup means we don’t trust each other.”

Trust isn’t about avoiding hard conversations—it’s about being able to have them. Talking through your prenup involves vulnerability that, when done right, should help solidify (not break) trust between partners.

2. “Prenups are only for the wealthy.”

While it’s true that many high-net-worth individuals use prenups, they’re not just for the rich.

A prenup can protect a small business, a home, future inheritances, or even debt allocation. If either of you has student loans, owns intellectual property, or has family support, a prenup can be a wise move regardless of your current financial status.

3. “Prenups only protect one partner.”

A well-drafted prenup protects both partners. In fact, courts are less likely to uphold one-sided agreements.

Good prenups are fair, reciprocal, and crafted collaboratively, with both parties represented and heard.

4. “Prenups kill the romance.”

This is like saying estate planning kills the joy of living.

Responsible planning doesn’t negate love; it supports it. Being able to talk about money, values, and expectations is a sign of a mature, healthy relationship.

5. “If we talk about divorce now, we’re doomed.”

Discussing the possibility of divorce doesn’t make it more likely; it just means you’re realistic.

It’s the same reason we buy insurance or write wills: not because we expect the worst, but because we care enough to prepare for it.

Ultimately, the connection between prenup and divorce depends on the motivations for getting the prenup and the circumstances under which it’s signed. As long as this is a thoughtful and collaborative process, there’s no reason to believe a prenup will doom your marriage.

Final Thoughts: Prenups Exist To Help, Not Hurt

Despite the lingering myths, no research has ever shown that prenups make couples more likely to divorce.

In fact, newer studies in psychology and relationship dynamics suggest that open communication about finances—a core part of the prenup process—is strongly correlated with happier, longer-lasting marriages.

If you’re ready to get the ball rolling or simply have more questions about prenups, book a consultation call with me today. I’m happy to help clarify the process so you and your partner can dive into your marriage with confidence.